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The rebasing of her GDP means that Nigeria has knocked South Africa from its long-held perch in what undoubtedly constitutes a psychological blow.
In the hours after the Federal Government released newly recalculated GDP figures following a lengthy IMF-endorsed review, South Africans were quick to point out Nigeria’s flaws. While some Nigerians saw this as sour grapes, many others were offering a similar commentary, decrying their lack of electricity and services despite their new-found status according to the FT.
First off the mark though was Clayson Monyela, the foreign ministry spokesman in Pretoria, who wrote on Twitter: “OK, let’s explain some numbers here. After all the lights are on in SA, the banking sector & infrastructure is world class.”
Predictably, they also pointed to the considerable gap in GDP per capita between the two. Although Nigeria’s economy, estimated at $510 billion, is now $163 billion larger than South Africa’s, its population of 170 million is more than three times bigger. South Africa’s economy is therefore more productive and Nigerians as a general rule are poorer they sneered.
“Given the relatively more developed state of our infrastructure and financial systems, South Africa will remain one of the important economies of the continent, though this rebasing will be a significant step in establishing Nigeria as a true African powerhouse,” said Roelof Horne, portfolio manager, Investec Asset Management which has investment in Nigeria.
Indeed, some economists, wrong footed by the scale of Nigeria’s upgrade – the GDP figures were a full $110 billion greater than the consensus forecast among investment analysts – remain puzzled.
Nigeria’s new data suggest that its economy is much more diversified than previously thought and structured in a similar way to South Africa’s, with a manufacturing sector almost as large, services accounting for the greatest portion of GDP, and natural resources – notably oil – down to 14 percent.
“If you look at South African trade with the rest of the world relative to Nigeria’s, it doesn’t quite suggest the differences are as great as GDP now suggests, especially if you look at import bills,” said Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa at Standard Chartered.
The same applies to the financial sectors in both countries, with South African penetration much deeper.
South Africa’s finance ministry issued a statement congratulating Nigeria on its new-found status.
But it quickly added a twist by claiming some of the credit was owing to South African companies’ investments in Nigeria’s retail and telecommunications sectors.
Some Nigerians and other West Africans are now becoming more sensitive about the dominance of South African companies on their turf, and the extent to which profits from their region are supporting their balance sheet back home. That tension has grown in parallel with less collaborative diplomatic relations between the two.
The old axis of cooperation once shared by both countries has begun to unravel under Presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Jacob Zuma, who worked at cross purposes on the civil war in Ivory Coast, on the Libyan crisis, and most recently during the elections for the African Union.
Businessday

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